Tropical Storm Rafael intensified into a Category 3 hurricane on Wednesday, making landfall in western Cuba as it approached the Gulf of Mexico, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). The storm is bringing life-threatening storm surge, damaging hurricane-force winds, and flash flooding.

The hurricane is in rarified air for storms in November, but will be in much different shape as it approaches the US.

Forecast models are aligned on Rafael’s path over the next two to three days, but uncertainty grows significantly beyond that timeframe.